3rd Quarter'2022 Update on Solar rooftop and utility Installation data of India
Solar rooftop & utility Installation in Q3'2022
IIn Q3 2022 (July-September 2022), about 2.82 GW of utility scale solar capacity was added. This is about 25% higher than the previous quarter’s installation. In wind segment, about 1.02 GW was added, which is 138% higher than the Q2 2022 installation. In rooftop solar, more than 400 MW were added in this quarter.
During Jan-Sep 2022 period, about 9.3 GW of utility scale solar capacity was added, which is about 1.7 times higher than last year installations in the same period. About 1.89 GW of new wind capacity was added in the first nine months of 2022, which is about 46% higher than 1.3 GW capacity added during January to September 2021.
Gujarat led the installations with the commissioning of more than 700 MW of new wind projects in this period. In the rooftop solar segment, about 1,334 MW of new capacity was added during January to September 2022, which is 34% less than January to September 2021 installations.
In 2022, about 13.6 GW of solar is expected to be added in India (~12 GW from utility-scale and 1.6 GW from rooftop solar). Whereas about 2.6 GW is likely to be added in 2022 in wind sector. Further, according to the Q3 2022 equipment shipment data, more than 2.9 GW of central and string inverters and about 1.56 GW of modules were shipped in India in Q3 2022. Sineng was the leading solar inverter supplier followed by Sungrow and FIMER. In the third quarter of 2022, Waaree was the leading solar module supplier contributing 14% share of all shipments in India.
In Q3 2022, India saw the lowest-winning solar tariff of INR 2.49/kWh under GUVNL’s 750 MW solar (Phase XVI) tender in Gujarat. The lowest-winning tariff in wind segment was INR 2.84/kWh under GUVNL’s 500 MW Phase III wind tender. While the lowest-winning tariff in wind solar hybrid segment was INR 3.03/kWh under RUMSL’s 750 MW Wind Solar Hybrid tender.
In Q3 2022, solar cells and modules exports increased by 57% and 524% respectively, compared to the previous quarter's figures. However, the solar cells imports increased by 64% and solar modules imports decreased by 64% in Q3 2022. The significant reduction in the import numbers is because of the imposition of 40% basic custom duty (BCD) on solar modules.
Solar rooftop & utility Installation in Q1-Q3'2022
Utility Scale Solar: From Jan-Sep 2022, about 9.3 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity was added in India. Compared to Jan-Sep 2021 period, installations are about 1.7 times higher. Rajasthan, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu were the leading states with most of the large-scale solar installations during this period.
Rooftop Solar: In the rooftop solar segment, about 1334 MW of new capacity was added during January to September 2022, which is 34% less than 2068 MW capacity added during January to September 2021. Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan were the leading states in the rooftop solar segment adding more than 800 MW during the first nine months of 2022. In order to achieve the rooftop solar capacity target of 40 GW, the government has extended the timeline of the implementation of Rooftop Solar Programme Phase-II from December 2022 to 31 March 2026 without any additional financial support.
Distributed/ Off-grid Solar: From Jan-Sep 2022, about 604 MW of distributed/ off grid solar capacity was added in India.
Wind: From Jan-Sep 2022, about 1.89 GW of new wind capacity was added, which is 46% higher than 1.3 GW capacity added during January to September 2021. Gujarat led the installations with the commissioning of more than 700 MW of new wind projects in this period.
Cumulative Solar rooftop & utility Installation in India
India’s renewable capacity installation reached 118.08 GW as of September 30, 2022. Solar continues to be the major contributor with 52% share in total renewable mix, which is followed by wind with 35% share.
As of September 30, 2022, about 60.8 GW of solar and 41.7 GW of wind capacity were installed in India.
The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind and hybrid projects are around 45 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 28 GW of projects are under bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
In terms of cumulative solar installation, as of September 30, 2022, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Karnataka contributed around 51.3% of the total capacity. Whereas in wind segment, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka and Maharashtra contributed about 71.9% of the total wind capacity installed in India.
Projected Growth in Solar & Wind Installation in Q4'2022
As per our estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 5.6 GW of solar, 2.5 GW of wind and 1.05 GW of hybrid capacities are expected to get installed in the country.
Projected Solar & Wind Installations from Q1-Q4'2022
In 2022, about 13.6 GW of solar is expected to be added in India (~12 GW from utility-scale and 1.6 GW from rooftop solar). Whereas about 2.6 GW is likely to be added in 2022 in wind sector.
Solar Tenders in Q3'2022
In Q3 2022, 75 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 14.2 GW were issued across renewable segment which is about 25.7% higher than the previous quarter.
MSEDCL issued three solar tenders with a total capacity of 2500 MW in Maharashtra.
REMCL floated a tender for setting up of 1548 MW land based solar power plant on Private/Farmers land near the Traction Sub-station (TSS) at 25 kV connectivity under TSS-II category.
GUVNL floated a tender of 750 MW solar power projects under phase XVI with greenshoe option of additional up to 750 MW. GUVNL also issued a tender of 600 MW solar power projects under Phase XVII with greenshoe option of additional up to 600 MW.
SECI floated a tender for supply of 2250 MW of Round-the-Clock (RTC) power from RE power projects, complemented with power from any other source or storage in India under RTC-III category.
REMCL also issued a tender for supply of 1000 MW of RTC power from RE power projects with or without storage across the country.
GUVNL issued a tender for setting up of pilot projects of 500 MW/1000 MWh under Phase I of standalone Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) scheme in Gujarat.
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Source: MNRE & JKM Research